Tuesday 6 January 2015

India's challenge is choosing XI


The 15-man squad announced to represent India at the 2015 World Cup. 
Five batsmen, two wicketkeeper-batsmen, three allrounders, four seam bowlers and one specialist spinner. India's picks for the 2015 ICC World Cup was along expected lines, given the limited choices outside the pack of players that have featured over the last year while the selectors and team management tested the waters in the countdown to the big event starting in February. They are perhaps a batsman short for the middle order, but knowing how MS Dhoni has operated during his tenure as ODI captain, he will make this work.
Now that the BCCI selection committee has identified 15 cricket players for the defence of the World Cup, the challenge is picking 11 to win matches.
That Dhoni did not want a legspinner at the World Cup is evident, but having one would have given the team a variety. The candidates, Amit Mishra and Karn Sharma, are at contrasting stages of their career and it is likely that the younger Karn would have been discussed in the selection meeting. He is fresher than Amit Mishra and can bat a bit, apart from being a better fielder.
Instead, the selectors have, expectedly, gone for offspinner, R Ashwin and two like-for-like left-arm spinners in Ravindra Jadeja and Axar Patel. Neither Jadeja nor Axar is likely to feature in the same match during the World Cup, which deprives the team of an extra middle-order batsman. A Robin Uthappa perhaps, or a Manoj Tiwary or Manish Pandey.
The squad has three batsmen who have opened for India in the last year and before that: Shikhar Dhawan, Rohit Sharma and Ajinkya Rahane, essentially meaning a three-way battle for the opening slots. Rahane has opened in 31 of 42 ODIs played, but has also batted nine times at No 4 and can, should the need arise, act as a floater. The No 4 and 5 spots are often frequented by different batsman in ODIs, so Rahane and Suresh Raina could interchange places as per the situation.
However, whether Rahane is better suited for the latter stage of ODI innings is questionable. He does not have experience of batting late in ODIs, and Ambati Rayudu's presence means the management could lean towards him and his ability to hit the ball longer and harder. Rayudu has batted at Nos 5 and 7 too, and is perhaps viewed as a better finisher than Rahane though in truth he has not had many opportunities to close out matches compared to Raina and others. It depends what the management wants.
Not picking a reserve wicketkeeper who doubles up as a batsman at the top or in the middle order - Robin Uthappa was a good bet considering the form he had in 2014, as well as a crucial century on the same day for Karnataka - also leaves India looking thin should something happen to Dhoni during the World Cup. Rayudu has kept wicket in IPL but is not that experienced a practitioner behind the stumps. India will hope that nothing happens to Dhoni for the next two weeks.

And now, the toughest question: who will India bowl at the death? They possess arguably the weakest death-overs bowling attack among teams in the reckoning for the World Cup. Bhuvneshwar Kumar has, under Dhoni's captaincy, been used more in the first half of ODIs; often he has bowled his quota inside 20 or 23 overs. In 42 matches, Bhuvneshwar has been bowled after the 40-over mark on 23 occasions but only four times has he sent down three overs or more in that period - the most being four. It is also telling that from overs 40-50, eight times he has bowled only a single over and ten times just two.

Umesh Yadav has struggled at the death during his 38-match career. On the seven times he has bowled his full 10 overs, he has conceded over 60 runs four times. Ishant Sharma has a chequered ODI career as it is, but this worsens at the back end of ODIs significantly. Mohammed Shami was the joint highest wicket-taker in 2014 but he too has been expensive in late overs, though he does have more wickets to show than Umesh and Ishant in this stage: 19 of his 38 wickets came between overs 40-50.
With Varun Aaron too unreliable, the other candidate the selectors could have gone for is Haryana and Chennai Super Kings seamer Mohit Sharma, who has done this role well in IPL and for India in his sporadic ODI career. Mohit is of course coming off an injury that ruled him out of the home series against West Indies and Sri Lanka, but has had success in domestic cricket since with 19 wickets in five Ranji Trophy matches, including a hat-trick on the morning of the selection for the World Cup.
From the spinners, Ashwin and Jadeja have some experience bowling at the death, but doing so on smaller grounds in New Zealand is not without risk. Axar, 20, has proved himself a superb operator in the batting Powerplay in his few ODI appearances at home, but has only thrice been used after 40 overs, that too for a total of 5.1 overs.
Five batsmen, two wicketkeeper-batsmen, three allrounders, four seam bowlers and one specialist spinner. A straightforward selection, yes, but narrowing down 11 who can win you matches overseas is not so simple.

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